Global markets have come under pressure since the Iran war began, with equities falling, crude oil prices rising sharply and volatility increasing across asset classes.<\/p>\n
Dalal Street has been no different. Indian markets have seen sharp swings in recent sessions, as rising oil prices and global uncertainty weigh on investor sentiment.<\/p>\n
For many investors, the bigger problem is not just falling markets, but the confusion around what to track.\u00a0Headlines continue to shift between escalation and de-escalation, while oil forecasts vary widely.<\/p>\n
In this backdrop, Nakul Sarda, fund manager and proprietary investor, says he has stopped relying on headlines and is instead tracking a few key signals that reflect real market activity.<\/p>\n
\u201cTrump says the war ends tomorrow.\u00a0Iran\u00a0says Hormuz is shut forever. One analyst says $150 oil, another says $60. You can’t build a portfolio view on this,\u201d Sarda said in a post on X.<\/p>\n
Sarda said the situation is especially important for India.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe run an India-focused equity fund. 85% of India’s crude comes from imports. Half of that normally passes through Hormuz. So yes \u2014 this crisis is personal,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Any disruption in this route can push oil prices higher, affect inflation and weigh on markets.<\/p>\n
Instead of reacting to headlines, Sarda said investors should focus on four indicators that reflect actual risk and supply conditions.<\/p>\n
\u201cThese are priced by people with real money on the line. They don’t lie,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Ship insurance premiums<\/strong><\/p>\n Sarda said the cost of insuring ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz is the most important signal.<\/p>\n Before the conflict, insurance cost about 0.25% of a tanker\u2019s value. This has now risen sharply to between 3.5% and 10%, with demand falling.<\/p>\n \u201cA $100M tanker that cost $250K to insure now costs up to $10M,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n According to him, a drop in premiums below 2% would signal improving safety conditions.<\/p>\n Ship movement data<\/strong><\/p>\n He also pointed to the number of ships crossing Hormuz as a key indicator.<\/p>\n Before the crisis, more than 100 ships passed through daily. That number has now dropped to around 8.<\/p>\n \u201cThat\u2019s a 92% collapse. You can’t spin a ship being somewhere it isn’t,\u201d Sarda said.<\/p>\n He added that a recovery to 30\u201340 ships per day would indicate that trade is resuming.<\/p>\n Paper oil vs real oil<\/strong><\/p>\n Sarda said many investors are missing the gap between benchmark prices and actual transaction prices.<\/p>\n Brent crude is around $112, but Dubai physical crude \u2014 which Asian buyers pay \u2014 is closer to $126.<\/p>\n \u201cThat gap exists because headlines move paper prices, but real buyers aren’t getting any discount,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n \u201cIf you’re looking at Brent to assess India’s oil bill, you’re looking at the wrong number.\u201d<\/p>\n Mid-April risk<\/strong><\/p>\n Sarda also flagged mid-April as a key period.<\/p>\n Several temporary measures supporting supply are expected to expire around that time, including strategic reserve releases and policy waivers.<\/p>\n \u201cRight now these stopgaps are keeping the supply gap at about 5 mb\/d. Without them, it could double,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n \u201cIf Hormuz doesn’t reopen by mid-April, we’re in uncharted territory.\u201d<\/p>\n Sarda said investors should avoid reacting to daily news flow and instead focus on these signals to understand how the situation is evolving.<\/p>\n \u201cTrack the insurance premium, the ship count, the paper-physical spread, and the April timeline. Everything else is noise,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n As markets remain volatile, these indicators may offer a clearer view of whether the pressure on markets is likely to ease or continue.<\/p>\n (Disclaimer: The views, opinions, recommendations, and suggestions expressed by experts\/brokerages in this article are their own and do not reflect the views of the India Today Group. It is advisable to consult a qualified broker or financial advisor before making any actual investment or trading choices.)<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Global markets have come under pressure since the Iran war began, with equities falling, crude oil prices rising sharply and volatility increasing across asset classes. Dalal Street has been no different. Indian markets have seen sharp swings in recent sessions, as rising oil prices and global uncertainty weigh on investor sentiment. For many investors, the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1280,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[133],"tags":[138,134,4,83,137,12,5,135,136],"class_list":["post-1279","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-english-news","tag-crude-oil","tag-global-markets","tag-indianews18","tag-indianews18-news-portal","tag-iran","tag-latest-news","tag-latestnews","tag-sensex","tag-share-market"],"yoast_head":"\n